Big City Centre Changes

The Christchurch earthquakes have generated local government reviews of CBD buildings throughout the country and many of them will require substantial renovations in the next ten years.

Tauranga is no exception and 110 buildings will need work to a greater or lesser extent in the next decade.

Whilst it could be a tough break for many property investors it could be viewed as an opportunity to develop a CBD that has the flexibility of responding to the forces of change in the long term. It will need an agreed vision of most stakeholders, and strong leadership to make it happen.

To have the vision of a future CBD requires a reasonable understanding of the changing patterns of consumer behaviour that are likely to impact. For example the last few decades has seen the trend of mall based retailing being a huge influence on the traditional CBD.

We are currently in the middle of another revolution in consumer purchasing which is of course driven through the internet. The bad news for the traditional CBD retailer and landlord is that this is just the beginning. The soon to be ubiquitous multi-use screen and especially cloud connected mobile devices are going to severely impact on almost every type of activity in the CBD.

Let’s just look at several common ones - retail shopping, restaurant dining, and staying in a hotel.

It’s a common practice now for retail shoppers to browse, decide what they want and then go home and buy the product on the internet for less. It’s seems unethical, and there are other downsides to it but it’s a growing trend. In response, in Asia, a new retail/internet model has developed where shops are much smaller, and have no stock except for a demo item which is displayed for optimum impact. There are touch screens available which you can access video clips of human sales assistants using a FAQ system. There is no cashier, and you simply purchase the item using the screen, on-line, using your credit card. You can then have it delivered to your home the next day. There would need to be one person on the premises for emergencies but that’s about it.

Would this work in Tauranga? Well, if it’s part of a national chain with a central warehouse, stock levels would be reduced dramatically, and so would staff and lease costs. It might not be applicable for some categories but would be for others.

The CBD could end up with much smaller more attractive shops. Would it work for independent retailers? Yes, if they contracted out their warehousing and logistics function to a multiple client supplier.

In a similar manner to retail, the restaurant dining experience could change substantially. In Europe McDonalds is deploying screen-based ordering systems, and this is expected to be replicated to other fast food brands. It’s not hard to imagine a medium quality restaurant on the Strand where one can walk in, confirm your reservation on a screen, then order drinks and the meal. Any questions or special orders can be dealt with by video link to the chef. After sitting at the allocated table you receive a text saying your drinks are ready, and they can be collected from a hatch. The same occurs for your meal. Obviously this wouldn’t be for everybody, but by reducing waiting staff costs, the price of the meal could be substantially less which would attract a market.

Another trend gaining pace in other countries is the personless hotel. You check-in by touch screen, you access entertainment through your own mobile device, and check out – all without seeing anybody.

These are just a few examples of how some CBD experiences will change, and there are many more. The key factor to build into our CBDs of the future is flexibility. Darwin didn’t say that the fittest species survive, he said those most able to adapt to changing circumstances survived. This applies in many areas of life and the urban design of the CBD is no exception. The change in human, commercial and recreational behaviour is accelerating and the built in ability to adapt is far more useful than grand plans.